Introducing Monika Piazzesi, the New Director of the CESifo Area “Macro with Micro Data”
Monika Piazzesi is the Joan Kenny Professor of Economics at Stanford University, and a professor (by courtesy) at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. She was President of the American Finance Association in 2024 and received the Elaine Bennett Research Prize and the Bernazer Price for Research in Macroeconomics and Finance. She is also a fellow at the Academy of Arts and Sciences, Econometric Society, and the National Academy of Sciences.
|
|
|
|
|
The new CESifo Area "Macro with Micro Data" will bring together detailed datasets, structural models, and key issues at the intersection of macroeconomics and financial markets. Drawing on rich data sources such as administrative records, regulatory databases, and surveys of households, firms, and financial intermediaries, we will explore topics such as the heterogeneous effects of monetary policy, the role of financial frictions in amplifying shocks, the interaction between regulation and credit supply, and the impact of expectations.
The Area will launch in 2026 with the corresponding Area Conference on 12–13 June.
|
|
|
|
|
Makers and Takers: The Economics of the Kalshi Prediction Market
Constantin Bürgi, Wanying Deng, and Karl Whelan
Predictive markets are platforms matching people who wager on certain events occurring with those who wager against them. Can the resulting prices be considered unbiased forecasts of events, though? And how does the specific market structure affect such prices?
Since 2021, Kalshi has operated as the only federally licensed prediction market in the U.S. Using transaction-level data on over 300,000 contracts, the authors of this article present the first systematic evidence of its price determination process. While Kalshi contract prices are informative, the platform’s “Maker-Taker” design lead to a favorite-longshot bias: high-price contracts win systematically more often than low-price ones. These findings underscore the influence of platform design on predictive market outcomes and suggest that design features determine the reliability of prices as forecasts.
|
|
|
|
|
Data, Power and Emissions: The Environmental Cost of AI
Alessandra Bonfiglioli, Rosario Crinò, Mattia Filomena, and Gino Gancia
Job Transformation, Specialization, and the Labor Market Effects of AI
Lukas B. Freund and Lukas F. Mann
The Impact of Interest: Firms' Investment Sensitivity to Interest Rates
Lea Best, Benjamin Born, and Manuel Menkhoff
News Customization with AI
Felix Chopra, Ingar K. Haaland, Fabian Roeben, Christopher Roth, and Vanessa Sticher
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bouncing Back
The ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose to 88.4 in October, following a decline to 87.7 in September after several consecutive months of slow but steady growth. The business climate improved particularly as a result of greater optimism about the coming months in the service, manufacturing, and trade sectors, while the current situation is assessed as generally slightly worse compared to the past few months.
|
|
|
|
|
19th Workshop on Political Economy
ifo, Dresden | 28 – 29 November 2025
Scientific Organizers: Christian Lessmann (TU Dresden), Gunther Markwardt (BTU Cottbus-Senftenberg), and Niklas Potrafke (ifo Institute).
Keynote Speakers: Sascha O. Becker (Warwick University) and Ruben Enikolopov (Barcelona School of Economics).
|
|
|
|
|
19th Winter School on Inequality and Social Welfare Theory
Alba di Canazei, Dolomites (Italy) | 6 – 10 January 2026
The School, co-organized by CESifo, University of Verona, and LISER, aims to provide junior and senior researchers studying inequality and social welfare with an opportunity to discuss major challenges facing our societies.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Highlights from Past Events
|
|
|
|
|
Munich Economic Debate: “The Future Is More Than Just a New Yesterday – New Framework Conditions for German Security Policy” by Florence Gaub
Chamber of Industry and Commerce for Munich and Upper Bavaria, Munich | 22 September 2025
"The future used to be better" is a myth. With this provocative thought, Florence Gaub challenged Europe at the last Munich Economic Debate. The continent must rethink its role in a world where the U.S. are progressively “pivoting to Asia” and urging Europeans to take responsibility for their own security. Gaub reminded the audience of the need to understand Russia's true goals and warned against the risks of the "known future", namely the (mis)belief that an escalation is only to be expected on NATO's eastern flank. In her opinion, other areas, such as the Arctic, must also be taken into consideration. She advocated for operational readiness, which requires more than acquiring advanced technology. Preserving peace and building a better future must motivate Europe’s commitment to the continent's security.
Many thanks to all participants for the engaging discussion! For those who could not attend, video recordings of the lecture are available here.
|
|
|
|
|
15th ifo Conference on Macroeconomics and Survey Data
ifo, Munich | 17 – 18 October 2025
The 15th Conference on Macroeconomics and Survey Data has been full of exchange and presentation of fantastic research, including insightful keynote talks by Sarah Lein (University of Basel) and Olivier Coibion (University of Texas at Austin).
|
|
|
|
|
CESifo Area Conference on Behavioral Economics
CESifo, Munich | 24 – 25 October 2025
The Area Conference on Behavioral Economics was a great success. Many exceptional papers were presented, and the conference was rounded off by keynote lectures by Gilat Levy from LSE on “Reinforcement Learning, Human-AI strategic Interaction, and AI Alignment” and Benjamin Enke from Harvard on “Value Uncertainty and Its Implications”.
|
|
|
|
|
CEMIR Junior Economist Workshop on Migration Research
ifo, Munich | 28 – 29 October 2025
The CEMIR Junior Workshop for Migration Research 2026
offered once again a wonderful opportunity for young researchers to share their latest work on migration-related issues.
The workshop was hosted by Panu Poutvaara, Yvonne Giesing, Sebastian Schirner, and Lasha Chargaziia.
|
|
|
|
|
EconPol Forum 04/2025: Governing Social Media – Societal Challenges and Policy Pathways
The EU has recently accused several digital platforms of breaching obligations under the Digital Services Act – most recently Meta and TikTok. While cutting red tape remains vital to boost Europe’s competitiveness, this new issue of EconPol Forum explains why social media still demands careful regulation. Our contributors examine how social media affects news consumption, political accountability, scientific communication, democratic debate, and mental health. They also discuss current policy tools and offer recommendations for more effective and less distortive digital governance.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Policy Debate of the Hour
|
|
|
|
|
|
Economic Policy and its Impact
|
|
|
|
|
|
Institutions Across the World
|
|
|
|
|
|
Big Data-Based Economic Insights
|
|
|
|
|
Who Drives Green Tech? Patenting Trends of Top R&D Firms
Innovation is critical for achieving climate neutrality. Top global R&D companies are key players, generating more than one-third of green patents on average between 2012 and 2019. Such patents, however, are in steady decline. This study emphasizes the importance of clear regulations for (green) innovation to thrive.
|
|
|
|
|
Policy Brief 77: Rethinking Corporate Tax Incidence: The Role of Firms, Workers, and Landowners
Who really bears the burden of corporate income tax? This Policy Brief challenges the common notion that workers bear a significant portion of the corporate tax burden through lower wages. Using data from more than 35 million real estate ads and over 17,000 municipal corporate tax reforms in Germany between 2008 and 2019, the study links tax changes to company profits, wages, and real estate markets.
|
|
|
|
|
Policy Brief 78: The Distribution of Profit Shifting
Introduced on January 1, 2024, the Global Minimum Tax seems to be well targeted: using German administrative data, the authors of this policy brief found that 95 percent of shifted profits come from targeted companies. However, a recent exemption for US firms from a backstop taxing rule undermines the GMT and could result in significant revenue losses. Consistent international enforcement will be key to ensuring that the GMT delivers on its promise.
|
|
|
|
|
Policy Brief 79: The Economic Consequences of Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty
The upcoming Policy Brief based on the results of the Economic Experts Survey (EES) will examine the potential impact of tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. Drawing on recent EES waves, the analysis contrasts the short-term effects on growth, inflation, and trade volumes with the medium- to long-term implications for GDP and investment. Surveyed experts regard heightened trade policy uncertainty as particularly harmful to national growth and firm investment.
|
|
|
|
|
EconPol Forum 01/2026: Paving the Way for Tech Disruption – How to Rethink EU Industrial Policy
Industrial policy is making a comeback. From AI to advanced manufacturing, nations are revising their strategies to secure a competitive technological edge. Europe faces a clear task: designing an industrial policy that ensures technological sovereignty while enabling the continent to deter, defend, and compete in an era of uncertainty. Is the EU doomed to chase the US and China, or can it lay the foundations for the next wave of disruptive innovations? How can it harness emerging technologies without distorting competition? Which sectors should be prioritized, and which policy instruments are best suited to the task?
The 01/2026 issue of EconPol Forum, coming out on January 29, 2026, will address these questions, discussing how Europe can unlock the potential of its innovation ecosystem by designing effective industrial policy.
|
|
|
|
|
|
We would like to congratulate our Research Network Fellow, Professor Dennis Novy, on his recent appointment as Chief Economist and Director of Analysis at the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO). Best of luck in the new role from the CESifo team!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Scientific Advisory Council
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Scientific Advisory Council of ifo Institute and CESifo has new members: The ifo Administrative Council appointed Professors Simon Jäger (Princeton University), Sarah Lein (University of Basel), Sandra McNally (University of Surrey), Ralph Ossa (University of Zürich) and Tommaso Valletti (Imperial College London) as members of the Scientific Advisory Council for a four-year term starting in November 2025. Five members had previously left the council after eight years of service. The next meeting in mid-November 2025 will be chaired by the newly elected chair, Prof. Kimberley Scharf (University of Nottingham). The list of members of the Scientific Advisory Council can be found here.
|
|
|
|
|
Ian Sue Wing, Boston University, is visiting CESifo 9 – 15 Nov 2025
Eric A. Hanushek, Stanford University - Hoover Institution, is visiting CESifo 16 – 22 Nov 2025
Hillary Vipond, Complexity Science Hub Vienna CSH, is visiting CESifo 17 – 21 Nov 2025
Heather Sarsons, The University of British Columbia, is visiting CES 24 – 28 Nov 2025
Mar Reguant, Northwestern University, is visiting CESifo 24 – 29 Nov 2025
Benjamin W. Cowan, Washington State University, is visiting CESifo 1 Dec – 13 Dec 2025
Steve Cicala, Tufts University, is visiting CES 1 – 19 Dec 2025
Ursina Schaede, Tufts University, is visiting CES 1 – 19 Dec 2025
Dita Eckardt, University of Warwick, is visiting CES 8 – 19 Dec 2025
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Bulletin Board is where CESifo network members can post news and messages regarding conferences, workshops and journals that are of interest to the research community and to all CESifo Newsletter readers. If you have anything you would like to share, please feel free to contact us at services@cesifo.de.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ludwig Erhard ifo Conference on Institutional Economics 2026
Fuerth, Germany | 26 – 27 February 2026
The 4th annual conference will emphasize empirical work that advances our understanding of how institutional complexity shapes public policies and the resulting behavioral, distributional, and market outcomes.
Submissions in Institutional Economics, Public Economics, and Political Economy, particularly from a Behavioral Economics perspective are welcome.
Submit your paper by 14 December 2025.
|
|
|
|
|
|
3rd International Leading House Conference on the Economics of VET
University of Bern, Switzerland | July 8 – 10, 2026
The conference’s topics of interest include but are not limited to (vocational) educational reforms and labor market outcomes; training programs and labor market outcomes; economic shocks and apprenticeships; training and firm level productivity; human capital and innovation; generative AI, automation, digitalization and labor market effects; interplay of cognitive and non-cognitive skills; returns to different types of education; skills formation across the life-span; social background and educational choices; cost-benefit analyses of apprenticeship training.
Researchers interested in presenting at the conference are invited to submit a full paper by email by 28 February 2026.
Keynote speakers: Simona Lorena Comi (University of Milano-Bicocca) and Kerstin Pull (University of Tübingen).
More info about the conference is available here.
|
|
|
|
|
Privacy Policy and Data Protection
We place great importance on your privacy and would like to inform you of our privacy policy. We treat your information confidentially in accordance with the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).
In order to provide you with more transparent and clear information on how we process your personal information, we have divided our privacy policy into various chapters. In this description you will find information on the basis on which the data is stored and how we use the data. You can also find out more about your rights, such as how to access your information and how to restrict the use of your information. Our privacy policy can be found on our website.
Subscribe | Unsubscribe | Feedback | Imprint | Privacy Policy
|
|
|
Provider
CESifo GmbH
Poschingerstr. 5
81679 Munich, Germany
Registered with the Munich District Court (Amtsgericht München) under HRB 125257
Managing Director
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Clemens Fuest
VAT ID: DE218182755
Editor
Andrea Balestracci
The reprint of excerpts from this newsletter is permitted only with written permission and provided that the source is acknowledged.
© 2025 CESifo GmbH
|
|
|
|
|
|
